Page 78 - ATZ11 November 2019 Professional
P. 78

GUEST COMMENTARY








                                                                                      Alexander Krug
                                                                                      Partner and Specialist
                                                                                      for Electric Mobility and
                                                                                      Charging Infrastructure
                                                                                      at the strategy consulting company
                                                                                      Arthur D. Little
























                                                                                     © Arthur D. Little








          Demystifying the Charging Challenge






          There is a widespread view that the combination of increas-  10 % of the total electricity consumption of the Federal Repub-
          ing energy demand from electric vehicles and a parallel switch   lic of Germany by 2030.
          to renewable energies will lead to grid congestions and power   Many studies have discussed this threat and predicted night-
          blackouts. But how likely is this in practice?     mare scenarios ranging from short-term local power outages to
           In 2017, we reached the first notable milestone in the    nationwide blackouts. However, these scenarios will only be
          electric vehicle market when global electric vehicle sales    valid if energy and mobility providers follow the same patterns
          ex ceeded the 1-million mark. Since then, the market has    and business models that prevail today. In practice, this is
          con tinued to gain momentum due to increased consumer   highly unlikely, as providers have strong incentives for further
          acceptance, more infrastructure availability and favorable   developing their business models and, due to the steady but
          regulatory changes. Simultaneously, renewable energies have   slow spread of electric vehicles, sufficient time to react to new
          played a central role in energy supply. In 2018, Germany pro-  developments.
          duced enough renewable energy in the first half of the year to   Electric vehicle market penetration is more of an evolution-
          supply every household in the country with electricity for an   ary rather than a revolutionary process. Although the electric-
          entire year. However, convergence of the energy and mobility   ity demand for charging electric vehicles is expected to double
          industries requires a joint approach, even though these trends   by 2022, it will still account for less than 1 % of total electrici-
          take place independently.                            ty generation. New solutions, such as smart grids, controlled
           So how real is the risk of local power outages when power   charging and decentralization of power generation and storage,
          grids exceed their maximum capacity? First and foremost, it    have the potential to meet the challenge of turning new digital
          is important to recognize that the challenge is not the absolute   business models into reality. The major competitors in both the
          amount of electricity consumed, but the simultaneity and local   mobility and energy industries are urged to seize these oppor-
          concentration of consumption. This becomes even clearer when   tunities, and politicians are called upon to provide an appropri-
          one considers that electric vehicles will account for less than    ate regulatory framework.
          72
   73   74   75   76   77   78   79   80