Page 78 - ATZ11 November 2019 Professional

GUEST COMMENTARY

Alexander Krug
Partner and Specialist
for Electric Mobility and
Charging Infrastructure
at the strategy consulting company
Arthur D. Little

© Arthur D. Little

Demystifying the Charging Challenge

There is a widespread view that the combination of increas- 10 % of the total electricity consumption of the Federal Repub-
ing energy demand from electric vehicles and a parallel switch lic of Germany by 2030.
to renewable energies will lead to grid congestions and power Many studies have discussed this threat and predicted night-
blackouts. But how likely is this in practice? mare scenarios ranging from short-term local power outages to
In 2017, we reached the first notable milestone in the nationwide blackouts. However, these scenarios will only be
electric vehicle market when global electric vehicle sales valid if energy and mobility providers follow the same patterns
ex ceeded the 1-million mark. Since then, the market has and business models that prevail today. In practice, this is
con tinued to gain momentum due to increased consumer highly unlikely, as providers have strong incentives for further
acceptance, more infrastructure availability and favorable developing their business models and, due to the steady but
regulatory changes. Simultaneously, renewable energies have slow spread of electric vehicles, sufficient time to react to new
played a central role in energy supply. In 2018, Germany pro- developments.
duced enough renewable energy in the first half of the year to Electric vehicle market penetration is more of an evolution-
supply every household in the country with electricity for an ary rather than a revolutionary process. Although the electric-
entire year. However, convergence of the energy and mobility ity demand for charging electric vehicles is expected to double
industries requires a joint approach, even though these trends by 2022, it will still account for less than 1 % of total electrici-
take place independently. ty generation. New solutions, such as smart grids, controlled
So how real is the risk of local power outages when power charging and decentralization of power generation and storage,
grids exceed their maximum capacity? First and foremost, it have the potential to meet the challenge of turning new digital
is important to recognize that the challenge is not the absolute business models into reality. The major competitors in both the
amount of electricity consumed, but the simultaneity and local mobility and energy industries are urged to seize these oppor-
concentration of consumption. This becomes even clearer when tunities, and politicians are called upon to provide an appropri-
one considers that electric vehicles will account for less than ate regulatory framework.
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