Page 16 - ATZ11 November 2019 Professional
P. 16


                                                                                   800 GW
                                                                                             721 GW
                                                                                   700 GW
                                                                                   600 GW
                                                                                   500 GW
            … at the
                                                                                   400 GW
           macro level                                                             300 GW
            (e.g. large                                                            200 GW  183 GW
             infra-                                                                100 GW
           structure) …                                                             0 GW
                                                           Required grid            200 GW onshore
                                                            extension in           wind correspond to
                                                         Germany equals 30           one windmill
                                  100 %                    to 35 additional         (3.5 MW)  every
                                                          north-south links         2.5 km nationwide

         © Frontier Economics  at the micro                                       freedom of choice and optionality
           … but also
                                                                                    E-fuels/power-to-X allow for
             level of

          Public acceptance is the key to any transformation of the energy and transportation sectors

          neous use [8]. This underscores the   in less than 2 min to the critical level of   power sources. The fact is that in addi-
          extent to which a successful energy-   49.8 Hz throughout Europe, and threat-  tion to their conventional load, our fragile
          sector transformation in Europe is con-  ened to fall further. Primary means of   power grids will now be expected to
          tingent on the installation of adequate   regulation were insufficient to stop the     supply an electrified transportation sec-
          storage infrastructure for solar and    fall and reserve power plants could not   tor. If we want to make sure that such
          wind energy, especially given the highly   be ramped up quickly enough. The black-  emergency intervention in the network
          integrated nature of the European power   out was only avoided by a decision made   remains the exception, we will need to
          grid and the need to retain it in its cur-  in France to unload around 2 GW, an   upgrade existing networks and secure
          rent complexity. Power grids tend to    amount that roughly corresponds to the   transportation in a use-based manner
          be very fragile and incapable of han-  load of metropolitan Lyon [8]. In June   with a variety of fuel types.
          dling significant voltage fluctuations.   2019, Germany was also forced to respond   According to a study conducted by
          Threats to this delicate balance in the   to chaotic grid circumstances on three   Oliver Wyman, failing to invest billions
          form of country-specific initiatives    occasions, also by short-supplying seg-  in the power grid and failing to do the
          and inadequate planning could lead    ments. As reported by the Mainz Allge-  necessary careful planning will leave
          to catastrophic Europe-wide outages    meine Zeitung, the integration of the   Germany and European countries in the
          as a result of domino effects.    European power grid led to a drop in    shared power network ever more fre-
                                            grid frequency throughout Europe [10].    quently exposed to the risk of blackouts.
                                            A blackout was only  prevented when   Wyman suggests that if we assume an
                                            France and Belgium ramped up their   EV market penetration level of 30 %, “the
          These conclusions are contested by stake-  reserve power plants, four grid operators   probability of secondary-network over-
          holders such as Innogy and Eon who   provided available regulated energy, and   load rises to 95 % given the existing grid
          recently issued statements indicating that   Trimet Aluminium SE, which accounts   structures and other regulatory factors.”
                                                 Aluminium SE,
          our existing grids can accom modate the   for 1 % of Germany’s power demand,   According to the study’s authors, there is
          increased demand associated with EV   was taken from the grid. Astronomical   “already an urgent need for action, given
          charging, and that there was no risk of   price spikes for power followed. While   the expected lead times that will accom-
          blackouts due to the volatility of renew-  market specu lators were identified as   pany grid expansion.” Moreover, progress
          able energy sources [9]. Such claims may   culprits, their actions merely reflect a   needs to be made early, with completion
          simply be an attempt to calm the public   fundamental problem whose cause lies    no later than 2032, as one would other-
          in the wake of reports of blackouts of the   in a lack of buffer resources as coun-  wise run the risk of “widespread black-
          sort that occurred on January 10, 2019 at   tries continue to dismantle conventional   outs in the near future” [11]. Meanwhile,
          9:00 p. m. when grid frequency dropped   power plants in favor of volatile green   the German Environment Agency has
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